Welcome Back Farmanons!
Today we’re covering the one of the latest concerns in the food supply chain, Avian Influenza (AI). Yes, it seems like every week there is a new major event with potential to cause either major shortages or price increases. (Usually both.)
Avian Influenza Outbreak
According to the CDC, almost 49 Million birds have died or have been culled due to the Avian Influenza in the US. This number is almost as high as the largest number on record which occurred back in 2015. (Source)
The outbreak has actually been going on since the start of 2022, but the problem is it doesn’t seem to be going away like it typically has in the past.
Avian Flu is continuing to spread at a rapid pace which is causing a huge number of birds to be culled. Meat producers and government agencies are on high alert to keep the losses as low as possible.
The transmission of the disease to humans is low thankfully, but this will have effects on prices and supply at the stores and restaurants. The situation could become catastrophic if they become worse with more major outbreaks.
Chickens aren’t the only meat bird affected by this disease. Turkey suppliers are also getting wrecked by this wave, just in time for the holidays. (Source)
This issue isn’t just a US problem either, much of Europe and other parts of the world are getting hit hard by the Avian Influenza where the prevalence of the disease is highest on record. (Source)
Preventative Measures
Backyard poultry operations are not safe from AI. To be honest, there’s not a whole lot you can do to protect your birds from this disease, but there are a few basic housekeeping measures to follow and general safety precautions.
Keep coop and any equipment/feeders/waterers clean
Isolate or cull any birds that look sick, however, sypmtoms are not always common with chickens affected by AI. It’s not uncommon for poultry to die rather suddenly with little or no sypmtoms.
Avoid sharing equipment with other chicken owners
Restrict visitors from touching or entering your chicken area
Refrain from visiting other chicken coops at friends houses or farms
New chickens added to your flock should be isolated for thirty days
Wash hands after handling/working in chicken area
Cook meat thoroughly
Try to keep your birds isolated from wild birds if possible
Plan Ahead
Its a good idea to stock up on chicken/turkey now. Even though there may not be a major problem with the supply chain, it wouldn’t hurt to get ahead of any price increases now if you have available freezer space.
I’ve ordered 50 meat birds for raising from chicks to slaughter scheduled to deliver in late January. We’ve never raised and processed meat chickens before so it will be interesting to see how it goes.
I should be able to add 20-30 full size chickens to our freezer and sell the remaining to cover costs. Free food, sort of.
Mississippi River Update
In case you missed last week’s article, the Mississippi river water levels are still very low which is causing major supply chain issues to and from manufacturing plants that don’t appear to be resolving any time soon.
River levels continue to remain low, slowing ships down and causing producers to use other, more costly methods of shipment. (Source)
From what I can tell, supplies at the local stores are probably not going to be completely shut down with massive chaotic shortages. But the supply shipments are going to take longer to arrive, which means your local supply store will likely run out in between shipments.
Costs at the store when the product finally arrives could be significantly higher due to skyrocketing barge shipment costs. Even if suppliers use another method of shipping raw goods to manufacturers like rail or truck, those costs are still considerably more than shipping via barge.
It’s also important to note that this shipping route issue isn’t only affecting farm/feed products. Thousands of items are (usually) easily and cheaply shipped via the MS river, items like petroleum, chemicals, raw goods, and more.
This includes coal for export to other desperate countries like the EU.
Diesel Shortage Update
This month’s distillate supply numbers are coming in at a slightly higher amount than previously projected. Estimates are now saying the US should have enough to barely make it through winter which is great news.
Keep in mind certain regions of the US are in better shape than others. Costs don’t appear to see any sign of dropping any time soon though with the national average for a gallon of diesel at $5.36. (Source)
Conclusion
TL:DR:
Stock up on chicken next time you’re out at the store
go ahead and grab that Turkey for Thanksgiving and Christmas
Stock up on animal and pet food and get your house
Protect your backyard birds from AI the best you can by minimizing contact with other birds and poultry operations
So what’s the next big crisis we will see before the years end? Who knows, but something new is sure to pop up! I’ll try to keep an eye on things and let you know ASAP. 🤠
Try to buy direct from the source whenever possible! We really appreciate it.
WAGMI,
Farmer