Stock up on supplies now...
Why supply chains are still getting wrecked and what to do about it.
Welcome Farm Chads!
Today I’ll cover what you need to do now to make sure your family (and animals) are happy through the winter because supply shortages could be coming very soon.
This past weekend I saw an old friend who works at a feed supply company.
Her message to me was stock up now.
She told me that shipments to her store for items like dog food, chicken feed, corn, livestock feed, and diesel are all delayed.
Now, as you know I’m not a doomer. So I took her warning as interesting, but I always need to do a little more research before I go out and drop hundreds of dollars in supplies with the risk of some of it going bad.
So I looked into some of the reports on this matter and much of it appears to be confirmed.
But why are there issues and how much stock do I need? I’m glad you asked!
Why are there supply chain issues?
Mississippi River
One curve ball that is causing supply chain issues is the Mississippi River water level being so low due to drought that the supply barges are unable to ship to the manufacturing plants. (Source)
As if we didn’t have supply chain issues already, now a major shipping channel is too low for passage at several critical points of the River.
Diesel
Possible diesel shortages are a point of major concern. There are reports that our nation is experiencing dangerously low distillant levels. (LINK)
Why is there a possible diesel shortage this year?
Distillate demand (diesel is one of the primary distillates) spikes at this time of year. Reported levels of distillates are at the lowest levels since 2008. But in 2008, the levels were low in the spring, after the winter demand spike. This year, levels are lowest at the worst possible time, going into winter.
Refineries were down over the past few months doing fall maintenance, reducing capacity.
U.S. refinery capacity has fallen in the past few years as several unprofitable refineries were closed.
Cutoff of Russian imports, is the biggest reason for the low levels.
You can read more here. (LINK)
What this means is now is the time to get stocked up on everything you’ll need to get through the winter. HINT - this includes your animals.
How much feed and supplies do you need?
The following is a list of feed/supplies you’ll need for your animals and the amount you’ll need to get through the next few months. I would recommend over stocking just in case.
Cattle/Horses/Goats/Sheep
Feed
Full sized cattle can eat 24 pounds of hay per day. Average round bales are 1000 -1200 pounds, so two round bales per cow would get you through to spring.
Adult goats/sheep can eat up to 4 pounds of hay per day, a round bale should last you several months. Square bales weigh roughly 50 pounds, so you would need roughly 10 square bales per goat. A good reminder that Goat hay needs to be kept dry.
Adult Horses can eat up to 10 pounds of hay per day, so one round bale would hold one horse through March. (I have no experience with horses, please add in the comments if you have experience raising horses.)
Get the trailer hooked up and go get hay now.
If you are trying to finish out cattle through the winter, you’ll need the corn or feed to do it. Stock up accordingly.
This would also include any sweet feed you might need if you’re milking a dairy cow and need her to cooperate. Or, if you’re like us who have spoiled your animals so much that if they don’t get their sweet feed they scream at you constantly! 😂
Medicine
I haven’t heard any supply chain issues with OTC medicines for livestock, but I have heard certain livestock antibiotics that have been OTC will become restricted starting in January. Apparently, starting in January, you’ll need to have a prescription from a vet to obtain certain livestock mediations.
If you use antibiotics on your livestock, check this article out and stock up accordingly. (LINK)
Minerals/Supplements
The supply chain could have issues on these as well, so if you’re using these for any of your animals, it wouldn’t hurt to stock extra.
Dogs
For those that have livestock guardian dogs, you know how important they are to your herd. Make sure you have enough food to keep them happy.
If you are feeding them dog food, an adult dog weighing 100 pounds can eat up to 4 pounds of food per day. So you’ll need about 10 - 50 pound bags of dog food for each full size dog.
Chickens
Chickens need supplemental feed, one adult chicken can eat up to .25 pounds per day. One 50 pound bag of chicken feed per every two birds would get you through to spring.
Any other animals you have, that I didn’t cover, simply look up the daily requirements and plan accordingly.
Corn/Seeds
Now would be a good time to stock up on corn just in case you need some for your wildlife feeders. It’s also good to have extra corn on hand for your livestock as well.
Seeds could be a problem going into spring, but I haven’t heard any rumblings or seen any shortages yet. It wouldn’t hurt to go ahead and stock up for your spring garden now. Hoss Tools is my favorite seed source. (LINK)
If I were planning a large agricultural planting operation in the spring I would go ahead and try to lock in the supply now if possible, including fertilizer and pesticides if used.
Cats
Don’t forget your Cats! There is nothing worse than a hungry cat at your feet!
Storing Feed
It’s obvious that feed stored in any location is an easy target for pests. Everyone likes a free lunch. Make sure you take extra measures to protect your feed.
If you don’t have the means to store your feed in large bins, the least you can do is make sure the bags are stacked off of the ground to prevent water damage.
If storing outside, under a shed, you need cats and dogs outside at night working for you to protect your feed.
The best place is inside a closed building if possible. Then you will have to look out for rodents, which brings us back to cats. Let your cats inside your store house occasionally to make sure everyone is playing fair.
Read more on feed and hay storage here. (LINK)
Diesel
The potential ramifications of actually running out of diesel fuel are astronomical. To be honest, if that happens, we could be in for a huge issue that not too many people are prepared for.
To keep things simple, we’ll just cover the main things you can do to keep your equipment running around the house or small farm.
If you have a large farming operations with large equipment that runs on diesel, you probably already have large fuel storage tanks and are keeping an eye on the situation, stock up now.
For smaller operations with maybe just a small tractor or diesel pickup, go ahead and store as much as you can in diesel fuel cans. Fill all of your vehicles’ tanks up now.
Now is also a good time to acquire motor oil for any cars or equipment you have, including the oil filters just in case. Stock up on DEF as well if you have have equipment that requires it.
Supplies for You and Your Family
If you’ve been keeping up, I’ve already talked about food sources in detail. (LINK). But I didn’t cover any of the supplies you would need.
The biggest problem for me, ever since the beginning of the nightmare that is/was Covid is the fact that, we never knew what would run out next.
As a supply chain manager in my day job, it seems like every other day there is a new random part that the entire world is completely out of, from plastics to electrical components to computer chips, every day it’s something new.
It is maddening! The only thing that is certain these days is the prices are still rising on just about everything from my perspective.
This is the same situation for your home supplies as well. We all remember the toilet paper fiasco!
The last thing you want to do is catch your toilet paper stash running low with a family of 5.
So what do?
The only thing you can do is stock up now. Buy some shelves or build some. Rearrange your living space to accommodate for the extra space you’ll need to do this.
Here is a list of the latest items that seem to be having supply chain issues for some reason or another (LINK). Thankfully I don’t need many of the items on this list.
What I do, is stock up quarterly on all paper supply goods. Toilet paper, trash bags, paper plates, etc. Get those out of the way.
Now all you have to do is focus on your food and maybe a few household cleaning supplies and other essentials.
Make a list of everything in your house that you ABSOLUTELY NEED. Next figure out how much you use of each item. Start acquiring enough to cover you for 3 months. See how it goes and adjust next quarter.
Don’t let this scare you, don’t panic. Just act, now.
WAGMI
Farmer